Defeat Merkley - Only McAlmond Has a Path

In the politically diverse state of Oregon, where nonaffiliated voters (NAVs) now comprise the largest segment of the electorate at around 36%, followed closely by Democrats at 32% and Republicans at 24%, defeating a long-serving incumbent like Senator Jeff Merkley requires more than traditional party-line appeals.

Merkley, a Democrat first elected in 2008 and seeking a fourth term in 2026, has built a reputation as a progressive aligned with extreme left-wing causes, including strong support for the Green New Deal, opposition to border security measures, and advocacy for policies that some view as prioritizing identity politics over individual rights.

Yet, his positions have alienated moderate voters, creating an opening for a Republican challenger—if the GOP nominates the right candidate. The only realistic path to victory lies in selecting a moderate like Russ McAlmond, a human rights activist, U.S. Marine veteran, and author whose credentials can neutralize Democratic attacks on Republican human rights records while attracting crossover votes from independents, NAVs, and even disillusioned Democrats who see Merkley as having veered too far left.

The Pitfalls of Past Republican Nominations

Oregon Republicans have struggled to mount competitive challenges against Democratic senators in recent cycles, largely due to nominating candidates perceived as extremists or conspiracy theorists. A prime example is Jo Rae Perkins, the 2020 Republican nominee who ran against Merkley. Perkins, a perennial candidate and vocal supporter of QAnon theories, garnered only 39.3% of the vote in a race where Merkley secured a comfortable 56.9% majority.

Her association with fringe ideas, including claims about a "deep state" and election denialism, alienated moderates and independents, who make up a critical voting bloc in Oregon. Perkins' campaign raised minimal funds—less than $100,000 by election's end—and failed to broaden appeal beyond the GOP base. This pattern repeated in 2022 when Perkins again won the Republican primary for the other Senate seat but lost decisively to incumbent Ron Wyden, capturing just 40.9%. Such nominees reinforce Democratic narratives that Republicans are out of touch or extreme, deterring the state's large NAV population—many of whom supported Merkley in past elections—from considering GOP alternatives.

To flip the seat, Republicans must avoid hardcore ideologues who cannot expand the tent. Nominating another conspiracy theorist or far-right figure would doom the effort, as it did with Perkins, ensuring Merkley's reelection in a state that hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 2002.

Merkley's Shift Leftward and the Opportunity for Moderates

Jeff Merkley, once seen as a pragmatic Democrat with roots in Oregon's timber country, has increasingly aligned with the party's progressive wing, creating vulnerabilities among centrist voters. As ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee and a senior voice on foreign relations, Merkley has championed causes like the Green New Deal, which he describes as needing to "transform every sector of our economy," including phasing out fossil fuels—a stance that resonates in urban Portland but alienates rural Oregonians dependent on logging, farming, and energy jobs.

He has opposed border security enhancements, co-sponsored bills to limit ICE operations, and supported sanctuary policies, even as Oregon grapples with fentanyl influxes and strained resources. Merkley has also backed expansions of gender-affirming care for minors and revisions to Title IX that allow biological males in women's sports, positions criticized as prioritizing ideology over fairness and parental rights.

These stances have drawn praise from extremist groups like the Portland and Eugene Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), who hail him as a "strong ally" on anti-Israel platforms, including his votes against aid to Israel and condemnations of its actions in Gaza.

For moderate Democrats and independents, this represents a drift too far left, especially in a state where economic concerns like inflation, homelessness, and wildfire management loom large. Polls and voter registration trends suggest growing dissatisfaction: NAVs have surged to outnumber both major parties, often citing disillusionment with extremism on both sides.

A candidate who can frame Merkley as an ideologue while offering common-sense alternatives could peel off these voters, but only if they trust the Republican to uphold human rights and unity—areas where the GOP has been vulnerable to attacks.

Russ McAlmond: A Moderate with Gravitas and Appeal

Enter Russ McAlmond, a Republican candidate who stands out as uniquely positioned to exploit these openings. A U.S. Marine veteran who enlisted at 18 during wartime, McAlmond brings military discipline and a commitment to service, having earned service-connected disabilities from his 15-month overseas deployment.

His educational credentials are impressive: bachelor's degrees in Business Administration and Management & Organizational Leadership, an MBA, an MSFS (Master of Science in Financial Services), and certifications as a CFP (Certified Financial Planner), ChFC (Chartered Financial Consultant), and CLU (Chartered Life Underwriter). As founder and Executive Director of the Center for Human Equality (CHE) in Grants Pass, Oregon, he has dedicated his career to human rights advocacy, emphasizing "ethical individualism"—a philosophy that treats every person as a unique individual deserving respect, beyond group identities or stereotypes.

McAlmond's book, Ethical Individualism: A Human Relational Philosophy, published in 2021 directly addresses improving human relations through truth, unity, and rejecting racism, judgments, and collectivism. Drawing from his own dysfunctional family background—marked by parental divorce and relational strife—McAlmond advocates for empathy-driven policies, such as mental health resources for at-risk youth and veterans, while promoting individual rights over group-based divisions.

This human rights focus allows him to reframe the party as the historical champion of equality (e.g., Lincoln's anti-slavery legacy) against Democratic collectivism. As a self-described "common-sense centrist," McAlmond opposes extremism on both sides, pledging town halls in all 36 counties, secure borders without sanctuary policies, affordable energy without crippling rural jobs, and protections for women's sports and parental rights.

His campaign emphasizes unity, calling for "zero tolerance for hate" including antisemitism, and standing firmly with Israel against terrorism - contrasting sharply with Merkley's hateful criticisms. Early indicators, like Polymarket odds giving him a 58% chance of winning the GOP primary, reflect his growing appeal.

McAlmond's Unique Ability to Attract Crossover Votes

What sets McAlmond apart is his potential to draw from Oregon's vast pool of moderates. In a state where NAVs and independents decide close races, his articulate, educated demeanor and focus on human relations can attract those who backed Merkley previously but now view him as too radical. Moderate Democrats concerned about inflation, drug addiction, or gender policies in schools may cross over, seeing McAlmond as a fighter for individual opportunity—scholarships based on merit, not race; criminal justice protecting victims; and legal immigration aligned with American values.

His veteran status and anti-extremism message resonate with rural voters, while his human rights activism blunts urban Democratic smears.

No Other Republican Matches McAlmond's Profile

Among the 2026 GOP field none possess McAlmond's combination of gravitas, education, and broad appeal. Other Republicans lack his national profile, book authorship, or human rights credentials, risking a repeat of Perkins' narrow base.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

To defeat Jeff Merkley, Republicans must nominate Russ McAlmond—a moderate human rights activist whose intelligence, articulation, and vision for unity offer the only credible shot at victory. By appealing to Oregon's moderate core and neutralizing partisan attacks, McAlmond can turn Merkley's leftward extremism into a liability, mobilizing NAVs, independents, and crossover Democrats. Any other choice risks another conspiracy nomination and certain defeat.

Oregon deserves a senator who prioritizes common sense over ideology; McAlmond is that leader.