58% Chance of McAlmond Primary Win

In exciting developments for the Russ McAlmond campaign, Polymarket—the world's largest prediction market platform—shows McAlmond commanding a robust 58% probability of winning the Oregon Republican U.S. Senate primary as of mid-February 2026.

This commanding lead underscores the campaign's growing grassroots appeal and strategic positioning in a field of multiple contenders, highlighting McAlmond's ability to resonate with Oregon Republicans seeking a principled, anti-extremism voice.

As a U.S. Marine veteran and advocate for Ethical Individualism, McAlmond's frontrunner status signals a positive shift toward unity and common-sense leadership, positioning the campaign for even greater traction ahead of the May 19, 2026, primary.

Polymarket, renowned for aggregating real-time crowd wisdom through incentivized trading, provides a dynamic gauge of electoral sentiment based on participants' informed bets. These mid-February figures reflect early enthusiasm and could build further as McAlmond's message gains visibility, offering a beacon of optimism for his bid to challenge incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley in the general election.

Candidate Probabilities (Mid-February 2026):

Russ McAlmond: 58%
Tim Skelton: 12%
Douglas T. Muck Jr.: 11%
Joe Johnson: 10%
Other/Remaining Candidates: 9% (distributed among lesser-known or undeclared options)

This lead is particularly uplifting for the McAlmond team, demonstrating that a philosophy-driven, veteran-led campaign can surge ahead in Oregon's political landscape, inspiring supporters and potentially drawing more resources as the race heats up.